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S&P 500 Bearish on First Trading Day of December

In the now available, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, on page 90, it is shown that the first trading days of every month since September 1997 for DJIA have produced nearly 40% of the total gain. Greatest gains were produced by the first day of February followed by March and July. However December’s first trading day has not been as productive for DJIA or S&P 500. In the following table, the performance of the first trading day of December over the most recent 21 years is presented.

Aside from disastrous 2008, first trading day of December losses have been relatively mild for DJIA. The second worst loss, 1.34% was last year. Although the table has numerous years with 1% or greater gains, consistency is lacking. Since 2006, December’s first trading day has been weaker, down ten of the last sixteen for DJIA and NASDAQ and eleven of sixteen for S&P 500. Perhaps, today’s market strength will carryover in December for a positive open to the final month of 2022.

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