Rolling 10-Year Returns Suggest Modest Gains Ahead


The chart above of the S&P 500 Daily Rolling 10-Year
Returns Since 1940 indicates the rolling 10-year average return for the S&P
500 is 6.64% as of the close of October 2021. For the 10-year period ending on
October 29, 2021 the average annualized return for the S&P 500 was 13.9%.
The highest 10-year annualized return for the S&P 500 since 1940 was 17.2%
in August 2000 just after the dotcom bubble burst. Recent 10-year annualized
highs occurred in March 2019 at 15.1% and on October 1, 2021 at 14.8%. As you
can see from the chart whenever the rolling annualized 10-year returns get into
the 15-range the returns over the next 10 years are more modest and trend
lower. Gains over the next 10 years are likely to be lower and more in line
with the historical averages in the range of 6-9% per year.

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